The correct result of every Premier League gameweek 24 fixture, according to statistics

The correct result of every Premier League gameweek 24 fixture, according to statistics
The Premier League shows no sign of becoming dull, despite thoughts Liverpool were set to run away with the title.A draw with Leicester City on Wednesday ensured they were unable to get too far away from Manchester City, while Tottenham’s triumph over Watford sees them gain on the two title challengers.6

Pep Guardiola watched his side slip up in the title race against Newcastle

Elsewhere, Bournemouth beat Chelsea 4-0 in a stunning result, while Fulham thrilled with a 4-2 comeback win over Brighton & Hove Albion.Arsenal claimed a 2-1 win over Cardiff City to send themselves fourth and Manchester United’s winning start under Ole Gunnar Solskjaer ended with a 2-2 draw with Burnley. But do the results we got reflect what actually happened in the matches we witnessed?Find out below how every team performed compared to their expected goals in the 24th round ofPremier Leaguematches thanks to statistics from Understat.com…

What is expected goals?

• Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
• Every single shot is awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
• The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
• The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.

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Arsenal vs Cardiff City

Real result: 2-1xG result: 2.67-0.58

Fulham vs Brighton & Hove Albion

Real result: 4-2xG result: 3.30-2.256

Could this win kick-start Fulham’s season?

Huddersfield Town vs Everton

Real result: 0-1xG result: 0.74-1.07

Wolverhampton Wanderers vs West Ham

Real result: 3-0xG result: 2.02-0.136

Wolves earned a comfortable win

Manchester United vs Burnley

Real result: 2-2xG result: 2.87-0.93

Newcastle Unitedvs Manchester City

Real result: 2-1xG result: 0.96-1.346

Salomon Rondon celebrates netting the equaliser for Newcastle

Bournemouth vs Chelsea

Real result: 4-0xG result: 2.15-0.76

Southampton vs Crystal Palace

Real result: 1-1xG result: 1.33-0.97

Liverpool vs Leicester City

Real result: 1-1xG result: 0.55-1.096

Liverpool endured a frustrated evening at a wintry Anfield

Tottenham Hotspur vs Watford

Real result: 2-1xG result: 1.36-0.746

Heung-min Son equalised for Tottenham

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